CEOs Report Minimal AI Impact on Productivity and Employment in Recent Study

Recent research shows most corporate executives aren't seeing measurable productivity gains from AI implementation despite widespread adoption talk. A National Bureau of Economic Research study published in February surveyed 6,000 CEOs, CFOs, and other executives from firms in the U.S., U.K., Germany, and Australia.

Key Findings from the Data

• About two-thirds of executives reported using AI, but usage averaged only 1.5 hours per week
• 25% of respondents reported not using AI in the workplace at all
• Nearly 90% of firms said AI has had no impact on employment or productivity over the last three years
• 374 S&P 500 companies mentioned AI in earnings calls, with most reporting positive implementation, but this isn't reflected in broader productivity gains

The Solow Productivity Paradox Comparison

Economists are noting similarities to Robert Solow's 1987 observation about computers: "You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics." Following the advent of transistors, microprocessors, integrated circuits, and memory chips in the 1960s, productivity growth actually slowed from 2.9% (1948-1973) to 1.1% after 1973.

Apollo chief economist Torsten Slok wrote: "AI is everywhere except in the incoming macroeconomic data. Today, you don't see AI in the employment data, productivity data, or inflation data." He added that outside of the Magnificent Seven tech companies, there are "no signs of AI in profit margins or earnings expectations."

Conflicting Research and Future Expectations

• The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis observed a 1.9% increase in excess cumulative productivity growth since ChatGPT's late-2022 introduction
• A 2024 MIT study found a more modest 0.5% increase in productivity over the next decade
• MIT researchers claimed in 2023 that AI could increase worker performance by nearly 40% compared to non-AI users
• Executives forecast AI will increase productivity by 1.4% and output by 0.8% over the next three years
• Firms expect a 0.7% cut to employment over this period, while individual employees surveyed saw a 0.5% increase

ManpowerGroup's 2026 Global Talent Barometer found that across nearly 14,000 workers in 19 countries, regular AI use increased 13% in 2025, but confidence in the technology's utility plummeted 18%, indicating persistent distrust.